This year, Itron hosted its 25th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting, which included about 90 attendees representing around 50 companies from the U.S. and Canada, many who are also members of Itron’s Energy Forecasting Group. Our first meeting started in Las Vegas, Nevada with only six people! This year, we were back in Las Vegas at the Linq Hotel & Casino from April 28 - May 1.  

In a casino, everybody’s thinking about what’s next, and our meeting was no different. Just as there is uncertainty in gambling, there is uncertainty in forecasting. Nobody knows what will happen in the future; I can no more predict the future than the person downstairs at the slot machine. But together, we know more. 

While uncertainty is present every year, so is more knowledge. This year, there was much consternation around weather, data centers and productivity gains from AI. Data centers were a “hot” topic at last year’s meeting, but what’s interesting is the conversation now comes with additional questions. Last year, our data center discussion was about how to forecast a data center with relatively little to no information. This year, during our data center presentations and roundtable, we discussed best practices for “dealing” with data centers. Communication between both parties can do wonders to alleviate the uncertainty, but I will acknowledge that is easier said than done. In short, the answer is: don’t incorporate any large loads from a data center until the contract is signed. If you can’t get a contract signed, coordinate with the customer to assess feasibility, but don’t forget to check in with your team about the reliability of information. 

Aside from the evolving narrative around data centers, incorporating extreme weather events to guide a forecast posed a challenge. Megan Klee spoke about the ENSO weather cycles, and the impacts on energy and loads are clear, so how do we use this phenomenon to inform our forecasts? The answer is: there is no deterministic way to account for ENSO cycles in our modeling framework, but you can incorporate ENSO impacts through stress-testing or creating forecasts based on weather scenarios. Additionally, you may have heard people discuss revolving economic uncertainty with the AI revolution and productivity. It is unclear what exactly will happen as we are still in the mist.  

Of course, if you speak to any handful of attendees, they may recall our discussions on electric vehicles, electric heat pump water heater efficiencies, short-term forecasting use cases, visibility into plug-in and rooftop solar, succession planning and the changing regulatory landscape. 

We all know pieces of this big puzzle, which is why we come together. See you next year in Omaha, Nebraska on May 11-15! Submit any ideas for presentations to forecasting@itron.com or let us know if you want to learn more about the Energy Forecasting Groups.